HPV Prevelance and Targeted HPV Vaccination Recommendation for High-Risk Populations

R
Infectious Disease
Global Health
Immunology
Author

Myo Minn Oo

Published

December 31, 2023

Modified

February 21, 2026

View Publication (Cancer Medicine 2023) | PMID: 37140209

Role: Lead Epidemiologist & First Author
Position: Postdoctoral Fellowship @ University of Manitoba
Domain: Infectious Disease, Global Health, Immunology

1 The Challenge

Gay, bisexual, and men who have sex with men (gbMSM) in sub-Saharan Africa face a disproportionate burden of HIV and HPV-related cancers. However, baseline data on specific HPV genotype distributions—essential for determining the potential impact of 4-valent vs. 9-valent vaccines—was critically lacking in the Kenyan context.

2 The Solution

I led the epidemiological analysis of a cross-sectional study among gbMSM in Nairobi. By leveraging multiple logistic regression and genotype-specific modeling, I quantified the overlap between HIV status and vaccine-preventable HPV types.

  • Risk Factor Identification: Conducted multivariate analysis revealing that HIV status was the strongest predictor of HR-HPV infection (aOR: 8.9), while being married to a woman was a significant social risk factor (aOR: 8.1).
  • Vaccine Efficacy Assessment (Proxy): Evaluated the potential coverage of current vaccines, determining that the 9-valent Gardasil vaccine would cover 61% of the HPV types circulating in this specific cohort.
  • Policy Advocacy: Translated complex genotype data into a clear public health mandate, calling for targeted HPV vaccination campaigns for Kenyan gbMSM.

3 Technical Deep-Dive

  • Statistical Modeling: Utilized R for multiple logistic regression and odds ratio calculations with 95% confidence intervals.
  • Data Visualization: Created prevalence plots and genotype distribution charts to communicate the “preventable burden” to stakeholders.
  • Tech Stack: R, tidyverse, gtsummary, officeverse.
  • Impact: Provided the first comprehensive evidence for targeted HPV vaccination in this population, directly informing regional cancer prevention strategies.